Dividend stocks generally are a buffer to the downside of the market somewhat. In addition, there are many ways to reduce risk now in the market or to hedge. Bonds other than Inflation protected bonds or floating rate are a Sell. Finally, we will always have walls of worries about the markets and investing, and that is what makes the market direction unpredictable and uncertain. That is why it is important that we should always look at your long-term plan and not on the day-to-day gyrations of the market.
Volatility will always happen, year to year. The only thing we can guarantee that will happen in the market is uncertainty and volatility. The source is Morningstar. Support on the Dow is , , , and These are areas that the markets could turn and long term investors may want to add to their positions. They are areas not specific numbers. The markets in the first week of have been volatile. The technology stocks are taking it on the chin while the value and dividend stocks are rising.
I think the value, discretionary stocks as well as energy and financials look good currently and going forward into the year. Interest rates will go higher, With the Federal Reserve pumping money into the markets any large decline in the markets should be short lived. Covid pressures should be nearly over this year and earnings should go higher. By the end of the year, I expect the markets to be somewhat higher, but there are very tough earnings hurdles to overcome.
Bonds are on the Sell block except floating rate bonds and Treasury Inflation protected bonds. Now more than ever this is very important. Call me at Securities and advisory services offered through SagePoint Financial, Inc. Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented in this letter should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice. No investment strategy, such as asset allocation, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
It is our goal to help investors by identifying changing market conditions. However, investors should be aware that no investment advisor can accurately predict all of the changes that may occur in the market.
A Santa Claus rally describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for the causes of a Santa Claus rally including tax considerations, a general feeling of optimism and happiness on Wall Street, and the investing of holiday bonuses. Another theory is that some very large institutional investors, a number of which are more sophisticated and pessimistic, tend to go on vacation at this time, leaving the market to retail investors, who tend to be more bullish.
I set the Season Length days to 7 days to encompass the last 5 trading days of December and the first 2 days in the New Year. Some years with weekends and extra holiday days plus is used as default trading days skew results a small amount. To compensate I also tested 10 trading days back from January 7. The results from the 7 days are below, I tested all the indices in my current database. INDU is highlighted, this is the Dow 30 index.
Not too bad for a 7 day trading period. BTW the results from the 10 days from January 7 were similar. This is the ETFs that had gains every year for the last 7.
Hmm something to keep in mind. The White line is the average of all 7 years. As stated on the Bartometer on October 10th we were getting Buy signals, and the market was oversold and a good buy at that time. On November 10th, I noted that the market was too overbought and not to put any substantial money into the market. This month we have dropped to a point where the market is getting cheaper but not enough to start to invest large amounts of money into the market yet.
Dollar cost averaging is fine, but not large amounts of money. There may be a Santa Claus that usually, but not always starts on the 15th of December. What caused the problem when the market is normally in seasonal strength? Robert Genetski and I have been saying for months. In addition, the stocks which have been the best performers this year have been the mega large cap stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Energy, Financial and more and the worst stocks have be the Very Aggressive stocks that were up so much last year like Zoom, DocuSign, Shopify etc.
Investors, short term, have been more interested in earnings and reasonably valued stocks than stocks with aggressive revenue growth and high valuations. I still like the aggressive stocks but they are more volatile. These are investments that cap the upside of the market, and give you a buffer on the downside. These are interesting to me now because we again have to look at risk versus reward. Energy investments, financial stocks, reasonably valued stocks, technology still look okay for investments and I still like floating rate bonds if the economy is doing well during this period of inflation.
Inflation protected bonds also do very well in an inflationary environment. These are high risk, but high potential growth. In , investors should be looking at more value and growth at a reasonable price.
Research worldwide shows lockdowns to be they are the worst of all responses, both in terms of overall impact on health as well as the economy. As a result, there is no telling if they will now behave any differently.
The fate of economy and, therefore the stock market, remains in the hands of what has been incompetent policymakers. The good news for stocks is the Fed continued to pour money into the economy in November.
This will boost stocks, spending and inflation well into next year. Although Fed Chair Powell indicated the Fed could halt purchases of securities before mid-year. Technical stock market indicators are more negative than positive. Yesterday, all of the major indexes closed above key resistance levels, which is certainly positive.
However, trading volume has been lower on up days and stronger on down days, the opposite is true in strong, healthy markets. Economic Fundamentals: neutral. I have been putting in the short term buy and sell arrows on the chart as you can see on the left.
As you can see, there were two Sells in late August, two Buy signals in early October 10th and two Sell signals in mid to late November.
On November 10th we were still on BUY—Hold signals but I said do not Buy because the market technicals were too overbought and extended as seen by the indicators above.
We need to analyze every day. This also shows when momentum is topping and turning north or south. This is one of 15 things I look at to determine a buy or a sell signal. We got short term sells on that day. See the red bars. Resistance is at NASDAQ support levels are 15,, 14,, 14, and 13, These may be safer areas to get into the equity on support levels slowly on the accumulation areas. After the market rallying for most of the year, it sold off hard over the last three weeks, especially the small to mid-cap and the very aggressive stocks.
The market is still in seasonal strength, but the COVID situation and inflation problems are rearing their ugly heads. I like large cap growth as well as small value and financials. Artificial intelligence should be one of the fastest growing sectors over the next 10 years. Securities and advisory services offered through Sagepoint Financial, Inc.
There is no assurance that these market changes or trends can or will be duplicated shortly. It logically follows that historical precedent does not guarantee future results. Conclusions expressed in the Technical Analysis section are personal opinions: and may not be construed as recommendations to buy or sell anything. Happy Holidays or not given how the Markets tumbled the day after Thanksgiving.
BTW, it was also the last full week of November. The filter is highly configurable and I can select which period of time, looking back from a given date to find a consistent price move up or down.
My AIQ seasonal screener can find these type of events in individual stocks. Events that happen every year at the same time. How long do you usually hold a trade? So, I have cash available to invest Monday November 29th. Yes, but only the version 3. The current TC version provides a "smart export" that will export version 4. After that is complete you can then use DTU to import the version 3.
No, DTU does not support the Metastock file format. Yes, DTU does support a 4-digit year format. You just need to choose from within the DTU program the date formats that contain YY and it will work. This will occur if the Trading Expert program has been installed in a directory like Program FilesWintes The program needs to be installed to Wintes32 in order for DTU to work correctly.
AIQ Technical Support support aiqsystems. AIQ Sales sales aiqsystems. Technical Support. Server dd. What time should the update be performed? You should wait until EST, before updating your database. This could mean your computer date or time are incorrect. I have bad data on one of my stocks, how do I correct it?
Can I add custom indicators? How do I delete Trendlines from a chart? Right click on the Trendline, choose delete, or delete all. How do I correct a bad data spike on a Historical chart? How can I see more years of price history on my Historical charts?
The vertical line on my chart has disappeared, how can I get it back? Use the A key on your keyboard to toggle the vertical line to a diamond. Click on Ticker, New and follow the wizard to add a ticker. How do I check my data for errors I may have missed? Check for days with no prices - Looks for days for tickers which do not have any price data. Check start dates.
How do I create a group list? How does AIQ calculate the groups and sectors? I don't understand what the different types of lists are? Linear or one level list. Tickers are organized alphabetically in this type of list. The window that shows my symbols is missing. How do I get it back? One of the groups is showing a bad data spike, how can I correct this? How do I add Alerts? How do I configure sounds for the Alerts?
How can I add a Price Alert? Follow these steps to active a Trendline Alert: 1. Right click on a chart. Choose draw attributes. Draw the trendline. Click on file, Alert Properties. Edit the Alerts. Add the following to the Alert Code:! Enable the Alerts. How can I automatically update my EDS reports after download? How can I run an EDS report for weekly data?
In EDS, click on file, properties and change from daily to weekly. In EDS, click on file, properties. Remove the check from stocks and add a check to Mutual Funds. Why is the date on the toolbar not set to the current day?
Is there a tutorial on EDS? How can I change the symbols that come up when I click the Market icon? There are 2 ways to do this: 1. This error usually occurs from the Point and Figure indicator. To fix it do the following: 1. Click on chart, settings, save current indicators. Try the Market Charts again. How often should I review System Messages? System Messages should be reviewed after each download. Should I delete System Messages? In the two lower boxes, the following will be displayed: File name: acclist.
In the large window, click on the file acclist. I don't have my installation instructions, where do I begin? Yes, but it is not recommended. How do I fix corrupted registration when launching AIQ applications? How can I add or delete columns?
Right click on a column, choose insert or remove. What symbol should I use for the Nasdaq stocks? Use regular ticker but add -QB t0 the end e. The Group column is not filled in on the Stock reports, why? The Access Plot is not appearing on the market log, what do I need to do? Click on report, global properties and place a check on Compute Access. Market Log - Explanation and Interpretation.
The proper way of using the Market log is a combination view of: 1. Then within a few days the market plot shows a change. Access Plot - Calculation and Interpretation. If your system has expired please contact AIQ at We will need the registration number which can be found by opening the Main Menu, then click on Applications, Registration, click Yes to the message 'Do you wish to obtain a key number'. You may also e-mail AIQ at support aiqsystems. You can get updated list files from www.
Below are the steps needed to get Trading Expert from one computer to another. Run a compact install for Trading Expert on the new computer. Restore the backup or copy the files to the new computer.
If you are using the myTrack data service you'll need to launch myTrack. You will be prompted with the question "New" or "Existing"? Choose "Existing" and enter your myTrack username and password. You may need to call AIQ at to get a new key number if the icons on the main menu are gray. Go to www. Trading Expert is not supported in a network environment.
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